Allen Wang, CEO of Babytree, Interprets the Seven Trends for the Social Internet
为了让更多人了解目前最具影响力的社交媒体发展趋势以及在此类平台上深度挖掘价值的方式，2011年11月2日，中国最受欢迎的母婴社交网络平台蘑菇宝宝网站创始人兼CEO王怀南先生，受邀出席由创业中国精英会主办的“社交媒体营销研讨会”，全面解读了社交网络的七大技术及未来发展趋势。
On November 2, 2011, Mr. Allen Wang, co-founder and CEO of Babytree, the most popular parenting community website in China, gave a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the seven technological and emerging trends for the social internet at the Symposium on Marketing in the Social Media hosted by China Entrepreneurs. An understanding of these seven trends not only provides a clear view of the current state of the most influential social media, but it also exposes the means by which value can be uncovered and extracted from such platforms.
趋势一：丹巴法则至今也没有被证明是错误的。
丹巴法则（Dunbar’s Rule）即为著名牛津大学人类学家邓巴在研究人类几万年变迁的过程中发现的“150定律（邓巴数字）”。该定律指出，人类智力将允许人类拥有稳定密切的社交网络的数量是148人，四舍五入大约是150人，即“150定律”。王怀南认为，SNS并没有增加实际生活的密友数量，因为社交媒体并没有增加人脑的交友力度，但是同时社交性媒体的确改变了两件事情：一个是每个人的边际交友的广度，另一个则是密友交流的深度。“由此可见，丹巴法则至今也没有被证明是错误的。”王怀南说。由王怀南和邵亦波联合创立的蘑菇宝宝建立于2007年初，一贯的理想就是为中国的年轻父母们缔造一个温馨可爱、互相支持的育儿空间。“今天，蘑菇宝宝上的用户平均好友数量为61人，平均每天可以产生相当于2000页纸容量的经验和意见。”
Trend #1 Dunbar’s Rule still stands unrefuted today.
Dunbar’s Rule, proposed by British anthropologist Robin Dunbar based on his research on the social behavior of primates and early humans, establishes that there’s a theoretical cognitive limit of about 150 (referred to as Dunbar’s number) to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. The use of an SNS, Allen Wang observes, does not actually increase the number of close friends one has, as it cannot expand the human cognitive capacity. What the rise of social media has done, in effect, is to expand the peripheral width of one’s social circle, and to deepen the relationships between close friends. “Dunbar’s Rule,” Wang asserts, “still stands, unrefuted, today.” Allen Wang founded Babytree along with Bo Shao, in early 2007 with the aim of providing a friendly, loving, and supportive online space for young Chinese parents. “Today, the average Babytree user has 61 friends. Together, these users produce 2,000 pages worth of first-hand stories and opinions every day.”
趋势二：现今社会性互联网的技术挑战集中在判断人的属性上。
社交网络之所以兴起，主要在于将人与人之间的关系凝聚起来，发挥了人际传播的最大效应。而对于大的社交概念之下的细分空间来讲，以人的各种属性作为群聚的依据，已经逐渐被社会认同，并成为社会性互联网技术最集中也是最关键的挑战。为此，六七十年代后兴盛起来的统计学的一支——贝氏条件统计学成为网络判断计算的理论和算法基础。精准的市场投放特别依赖于使用贝氏统计学原理根据用户在社交网络上留下的行为足迹来判断他们的人群属性和对新信息、新品牌的未来反应。
Trend #2 The current technical challenge for the social internet lies in the automatic determination of users’ affinities. The rise of the social internet stems largely from the fact that it has made it much easier for people to stay connected with one another, and for information to spread, through these connections, much faster and wider than ever before. And as the use of the social web gets more widespread, specialization occurs and people begin to congregate with other like-minded people. As a result, algorithms for automatic affinity detection have come to the fore as the key technical challenge facing the social web. Such algorithms are usually based on a probabilistic theorem known as Baye’s Theorem, which got its roots in the mid-18th century and was popularized among statisticians in the 1960’s. Smart application of Bayesian algorithms can help marketers precision-target users based on their affinity groups and likely reactions to new products and information as determined by their online behavior.
趋势三：社交媒体真正进入形式和内容并重、运营和产品并举的阶段。
经过对西方的模仿与最初艰难的摸索，国内社交媒体的初级发展阶段业已结束。2011年，是中国社交媒体高速发展并逐渐产生分化的一年，不少曾经红火、耳熟能详的社交媒体面临严峻挑战。王怀南表示：“在广大用户被形式吸引的新鲜感渐渐褪去，以及对产品本身的需求和要求更加明确之后，社交媒体真正进入形式和内容并重、运营和产品并举的阶段。也就是说，内容依然重要，但是内容的符合目标人群的合理包装一样重要。产品仍然重要，但是社区的运营、特别是精心挑选出由社区的参与者产生的草根内容以最好的面貌呈现于用户也至关重要。 而作为一家母婴类垂直SNS网站，蘑菇宝宝一直非常关注网站本身所提供的内容为用户带来的真正实际帮助，同时也不断着眼创新，在产品和运营中，不断优化用户体验。”
Trend #3 Dual importance of content vs. format, and product features vs. editorial maintenance. Social media in China has just ended its initial development phase of emulating the West and exploratory experimentation. The year 2011 marks a year of rapid development and gradual specialization for the Chinese social media. Some of the erstwhile hot and popular sites are now struggling to find direction. Mr. Wang says, “As the curiosity factor wears off, and as demand for product features and functions takes shape, social media is entering a new phase of dual importance of content vs. format, as well as product features vs. editorial maintenance. In other words, while content is important as ever, how that content is packaged in a way that suits the needs of target users becomes equally important. While product features are important as ever, editorial maintenance, as in the selection and presentation of UGC content, is equally important. As an SNS site in the parenting vertical, Babytree has made every effort to make its content useful and relevant to its users. In the meanwhile, it keeps re-inventing itself and constantly strives to optimize user experience with product and editorial enhancements.
趋势四：口碑，特别是网络口碑影响主流消费决策， 而且影响力口碑传播力人人都有， 社会网路使凡人皆有可能成为具体情境下的口碑领袖。
根据2011年初由蘑菇宝宝发布的《第二届中国家庭育儿方式研究报告》显示，近九成妈妈向别人推荐过育儿产品，她们主要推荐给亲朋好友或同事，同时几乎一半妈妈相信亲朋好友推荐并产生购买愿望和行为。“当代以80后为主体的妈妈们，互联网交流几乎已经超越了面对面，她们在网上联系老朋友，同时和有共同爱好的陌生人交流、互动，网络口碑应运而生，我们有理由相信，口碑特别是网络口碑正在影响主流消费决策。”王怀南以蘑菇宝宝为例解释道。
更加振奋的是，传统的口碑往往被认为是某一些具有领导气质、信息领先权的少数人士的专利。互联网特别是社会网络使信息不对称基本消失，同时又给每一个人发言的权利和机会，从而促使每一个社交网络的参与者都可能因人而异、因情而异地成为临时的口碑传播者。
Trend #4 Word-of-mouth has taken on increased importance in mainstream consumer decision-making, and, thanks to the social internet, everyone has a chance at becoming a word-of-mouth opinion leader.
According to the “2nd Survey Study of Child-rearing Practices in China” published in early 2011 by Babytree, nearly 90% of moms have made baby-product recommendations to friends, relatives and/or coworkers. And almost 50% of moms have made purchase decisions based on these recommendations. “Present-day new moms, who were born mostly in the 80s, rely on the internet, even more than face-to-face interactions, to stay connected to their friends as well as strangers who share common interests. As a result, online word-of-mouth has taken off. We have reasons to believe that online word-of-mouth is exerting great influence on mainstream consumer decision-making,” explains Mr. Wang, using Babytree as an example.
What’s more exciting, unlike traditional word-of-mouth, where opinion leadership is confined to a select group of charismatic people with privileged information access, in the social internet, with equal access to information, and equal rights and opportunity to express opinions, every participant has a chance to play a key word-of-mouth role given the right circumstances.
趋势五：SNS垂直化在中国尤其明显。
和国外SNS网站的发展不同，因为平台的氛围不同，往往所谓通用的社交平台远远不能满足垂直人群对于垂直内容和特定文化氛围的需求。“至今，约有超过1.5亿张家庭照片存储在蘑菇宝宝上，每日约有近十万用户在进行着上传行为，日上传照片数约20万张以上，同时日均120万张次照片被浏览（含幻灯片和单张照片展示页面，其中幻灯片工具占24%），每日有3万左右的独立用户在进行浏览照片的行为（含幻灯片和单张照片展示页面）。” 基于此，王怀南认为社交网络的趋势之五为，“与泛SNS不同，尽管各种平台微博、轻博客上线，但蘑菇宝宝的家庭照片上传数量不受影响，蘑菇宝宝专门为照片开发的时光看板功能更受到广大用户追捧。可见，SNS垂直化在中国尤其明显。”
Trend #5 A trend toward vertical specialization is evident, especially in China. Unlike its foreign counterparts, general-purpose SNS sites in China have a hard time catering to the particular content- and context-related needs of niche audiences. “To date, there are more than 150 millions family photos that have been uploaded to Babytree. Nearly 100,000 users upload more than 200,000 photos daily. On average, 1.2 millions photos are viewed everyday by about 30,000 users (using slide shows as well as single-photo pages, with slide shows accounting for 24% of views).” Armed with such statistics, Mr. Wang believes that “Unlike general-purpose SNS sites, which have been seen defections to microblogging sites, Babytree has remained the destination for family photos. As an example, our ‘storyboard’, a new feature based around photos, has proven to be wildly popular among our users. Thus, the trend toward vertical specialization is evident in China.”
趋势六：SNS已经不会成为某种网站，而是一种属性，是所有网络形式都必须附着的必须属性。
在前述趋势之下，蘑菇宝宝团队发现，社交网络很难单一以此特性在竞争中保持用户的增长、甚至是原有用户的忠诚度。“SNS已经不会只成为某种网站，而是一种属性。那些本身已经在各个领域取得成功网站，比如新浪、淘宝、虾米、优酷等等正在开发一些带有SNS性质的产品及服务，利用社交属性开拓更多市场并满足多元化的需求；而那些单一的SNS网站如若原地不动，也许很难走的更远。如何保持自身已经在SNS领域建立起来的优势，同时更适应趋势的脚步，成为此类网站的共同命题”。王怀南如是说。
Trend #6 SNS will no longer be a stand-alone site; rather, it is becoming a must-have aspect of any website. As a consequence of the foregoing trends, the Babytree team has discovered that it is increasingly difficult for a stand-alone SNS site to keep growing its user base, or even to keep the loyalty of its existing users. “SNS will no longer be the label for a particular type of site; rather, it’s becoming an attribute. Websites that have attained a level of success in a particular arena, such as Sina, Taobao, Xiami, Youku, etc., are all developing products and services that are SNS in nature, with the aim of expanding their market with social elements. Stand-alone SNS sites will have a hard time competing if they do not keep up. “SNS sites all face the same challenge of how best to maintain their existing advantages while keeping in step with developing trends,” according to Mr. Wang.
趋势七：智能手机的革命提供了线上下社会关系融合的桥梁。
最后，智能手机的革命被王怀南先生提及，在他看来，智能手机的大发展和不断普及，提供了线上下社会关系融合的桥梁，意义重大。在网上的虚拟友情通过诸如智能手机引导为具体落地友谊的时候， “在那一刹那， 线上和线下完美融合了”， 王怀南说。“育儿问答是蘑菇宝宝引以为傲的优秀产品，新近开发的育儿问答手机客户端，让更多乐于提问和回答的热心妈妈走到了线下。你很难想像，拿出手机，发出一条问题，不一会儿，世界各地的热情答案纷至沓来。这就是智能手机带给我们生活的改变，也是为SNS带来的新生机。”
Trend #7 The rise of smart phones provides the perfect platform for bridging online and offline social relations.
The rapid adoption of the smart phone, according to Mr. Wang, is truly revolutionary in that it provides the perfect platform for bridging online and offline social relations. The moment when a virtual, online relationship turns real, face-to-face through the virtues of a smart phone, “the offline and online worlds merge into one,” Mr. Wang declares. “Parenting Q&A has always been a very popular Babytree product that we’re very proud of. Now that we’ve just released a smart phone version, it has allowed moms to ask for and receive help wherever there are. It’s a truly amazing experience to be able to take out your phone, type in a question, and in a few seconds, receive answers from all corners of the world. This is how smart phones are changing our lives, and it also indicates a great new opportunity for SNS.”
